Gold Reversal 4h · Osprey

Low significance

by qkt Labs (house research)

A mean-reversion Gold strategy on 4-hour bars. Positions are held up to 5 days, behind a fixed protective stop. Every figure below comes from a full tick-data run with spread, commission and swap charged.

Approach: Mean reversion · XAGUSD, XAUUSD · H4
Tested on ticks: Jan 1, 2020 → Dec 31, 2025
Publishing checks: 11 of 11 passed
Overfitting guard: 400 variants declared · deflated Sharpe 9%
In-sample, $100k: +5.9% · max drawdown 2.7% · 148 trades
Version: 2, published Oct 12, 2026 · future versions included

Included with the strategy

The same backtest re-run with commissions, slippage and swap costs at 1×, 1.5× and 2×, to show how much margin the edge has over its costs.